Me and Myanmar Japan Center

"A sudden thought popped into my head, bringing a feeling of lightness, and I smiled. It reminded me of about eighteen years ago in Yangon, when I was feeling stressed and uneasy. To find a new social circle, I went to the Myanmar Japan Center and took courses in Financial Management and Business Management. Initially, I just wanted a change of scenery, but I soon realized that the other students were older than me, with more experience and education. Also, I discovered that the teaching was really practical, dealing with the realities of business in developing countries. Experienced professionals from Japan, professors from Japanese universities, came to teach us the essential foundations of business in a concise, systematic way. It was a truly valuable experience, and I even had the opportunity to plant the seeds for an alumni association, starting with our class. That's a sort of advertisement or introduction for the Myanmar Japan Center.

On the first day of the Financial Management course, the students didn't know each other yet. To help us bond and break the ice, the teacher started a LEGO Structure copy game. The game’s point is to:

• Study the efficiency of teamwork and help improve problem-solving skills.
• This activity, which is great for large groups, helps to improve teamwork, communication, and attention to detail when giving and receiving instructions. Participants work in small groups to complete a task, and also learn how their actions can affect the bigger picture. Give it a try!
• Time required: 30 minutes
• Group size: At least 10 people, divided into small groups of about 5.
• Materials: Several sets of identical LEGO bricks (or similar building bricks) of various sizes and colors, and paper and writing materials may be provided, but are not necessary.
• Description and instructions:
• Create a LEGO structure with LEGOs of different colors and sizes and place it in a room where it cannot be seen until the activity begins.
• Divide the group into smaller groups (depending on the number of LEGOs available and the group size). Each group should be given a set of bricks to build an exact replica of the LEGO structure you built. The rules are that only one person from each group can go to see the structure at a time. When they return to their group, they cannot touch the bricks, but they can tell the others how to build their replica. Anyone from the group can go to see the structure, but only one at a time. After the next person goes to see it and comes back, the previous person can touch their bricks and help build.
• Emphasize that the goal is for each group to complete an exact replica of the model. The problem is that the structure is deceptively complex, with different colors and structures that are difficult to describe. In this situation teamwork is very important. That is when I remembered how this exercise brought a clear understanding that a dictatorial 'do as I say' style of management doesn't work.
• That also brought realization to me, that, while fighting against authoritarian rule, unknowingly I may also be acting with authoritarian tendencies. But, by seeing it in my self, I have the opportunity to make corrections 

1

Rise and Fall

At the rise and fall of empires throughout history can certainly offer lessons about change, power dynamics, and the factors that contribute to decline. Understanding these patterns might help in grasping the idea that periods of dominance or specific circumstances ("terms") are often finite.

Here is a list of some notable empires that eventually declined or collapsed, along with key factors often cited for their fall:

1. /The Roman Empire (Western: c. 27 BCE - 476 CE / Eastern (Byzantine): c. 330 CE - 1453 CE)

   • Reasons for Decline (West): Internal political instability (civil wars, succession crises), economic troubles (inflation, heavy taxation, disruption of trade), military overspending and overextension, pressure from migrating tribes ("barbarian invasions"), social decay, and the division of the empire itself.
   • Reasons for Decline (East/Byzantine): Constant warfare (with Persians, Arabs, Crusaders, Turks), internal strife and palace coups, loss of territory over centuries, economic challenges, culminating in the conquest by the Ottoman Turks.
   • Lesson: Internal weakness (political, economic, social) often makes empires vulnerable to external pressures. Overextension is costly.

2. The Han Dynasty (China, 206 BCE – 220 CE)

   • Reasons for Decline: Political corruption and infighting (cour
     
     t eunuchs vs. scholar-officials), growing power of local warlords and landowners undermining central authority, peasant rebellions (like the Yellow Turban Rebellion) fueled by hardship and inequality, pressure from nomadic groups (Xiongnu), natural disasters.
   • Lesson: Centralized control can be eroded by internal corruption and the rise of regional powers; social inequality can lead to massive instability.

3. The Mongol Empire (c. 1206 - 1368 for the unified empire/Yuan Dynasty)

   • Reasons for Decline: The empire became too vast to govern effectively from a single center. Succession disputes after the deaths of strong leaders (like Genghis Khan and Kublai Khan) led to infighting. The conquered peoples began to reassert themselves, and Mongol rulers in different regions assimilated into local cultures, leading to fragmentation into separate Khanates (Golden Horde, Ilkhanate, Chagatai Khanate, Yuan Dynasty). The Yuan Dynasty in China was eventually overthrown by the Ming Dynasty.
   • Lesson: Rapid expansion can create administrative and logistical nightmares; maintaining unity over vast, diverse territories is incredibly difficult, especially without strong, continuous leadership.

4. The Ottoman Empire (c. 1299 - 1922)

   • Reasons for Decline: A long, slow decline often called the "Sick Man of Europe." Factors include failure to modernize militarily and economically compared to European powers, corruption in administration, succession problems leading to weak sultans, loss of territory due to wars and rising nationalism among subject peoples (Greeks, Serbs, etc.), and increasing economic dependence on European powers. It was ultimately dismantled after World War I.
   • Lesson: Failure to adapt to changing technological, economic, and political landscapes can lead to obsolescence and decline, especially when facing dynamic rivals. Nationalism can break apart multi-ethnic empires.

5. The Spanish Empire (c. 1492 - 1898)

   • Reasons for Decline: Economic problems (inflation fueled by New World silver, inefficient taxation, reliance on colonial wealth rather than domestic production), costly wars in Europe (e.g., Thirty Years' War, wars against England and France), loss of naval supremacy (defeat of the Armada), administrative challenges in governing a vast overseas empire, and eventually, successful independence movements in its American colonies.
   • Lesson: Wealth extraction without sustainable economic development is fragile; constant warfare drains resources; maintaining control over distant colonies becomes increasingly difficult over time.

6. The British Empire (Peak c. 19th-early 20th Century, decline post-WWII)

   • Reasons for Decline: The economic strain of two World Wars, the rise of powerful independence movements across Asia and Africa (fueled by nationalism and changing ideas about self-determination), shifting global power dynamics (rise of the US and USSR), and changing political will within Britain itself regarding the cost and morality of maintaining an empire.
   • Lesson: Global wars can bankrupt even the most powerful nations; ideologies like nationalism and self-determination can be powerful forces for change; maintaining an empire requires both resources and political will, both of which can diminish.

7. The Soviet Union (1922 - 1991)

   • Reasons for Collapse: Economic stagnation due to the inefficiencies of central planning, unsustainable military spending during the Cold War arms race, political repression fueling dissent, rising nationalist sentiments in constituent republics (like Ukraine, Georgia, Baltic states), the war in Afghanistan, and reforms (Glasnost and Perestroika) under Gorbachev that inadvertently weakened central control and unleashed long-suppressed forces.
   • Lesson: Economic systems that stifle innovation and efficiency can fail; ideological rigidity can mask deep-seated problems; attempts at reform in a repressive system can sometimes accelerate its collapse.

General Lessons Relevant to "Accepting Your Term":

• Change is Constant: No empire lasts forever. Political, economic, social, and technological landscapes inevitably shift.
• Internal Factors Matter: Corruption, division, economic mismanagement, and social inequality often weaken empires from within, making them susceptible to collapse.
• Adaptability is Key: Empires that fail to adapt to new challenges (military technology, economic shifts, political ideas) are often overtaken by those that do.
• Overreach Has Consequences: Expanding beyond the ability to effectively govern, defend, or economically sustain often leads to fragmentation or decline.
• Power Dynamics Shift: The rise of new powers or ideologies inevitably challenges existing ones.

Studying these falls highlights that periods of dominance ("terms") are subject to complex forces and are rarely permanent. Accepting this might involve recognizing vulnerabilities, adapting to change, or understanding the cyclical nature of power in history

The future of the US dollar (USD)

The future of the US dollar (USD), considering the concerns you raised about US debt, foreign bond holdings, and the growing desire of some nations to reduce their reliance on it. This is a complex issue with many potential paths forward.

Where the US Dollar Stands Today: The Global Reserve Currency

First, it's crucial to understand why the USD holds its current dominant position:

1. Historical Context: Since the Bretton Woods Agreement after WWII, the USD has been the cornerstone of international finance. Even after the US left the gold standard in 1971, the system adapted, largely keeping the dollar central.
2. Deep and Liquid Financial Markets: The US boasts the largest, most easily accessible, and most transparent financial markets in the world. Anyone wanting to buy or sell large amounts of assets (like stocks, bonds) with minimal price disruption can do so easily in USD.
3. Trust and Stability (Relatively): Despite concerns, the US political system, rule of law, and independent central bank (the Federal Reserve) are generally seen as more stable and predictable than many alternatives. Investors trust that their assets held in USD won't be arbitrarily seized or devalued overnight due to sudden political upheaval (though policy debates certainly exist).
4. Inertia and Network Effects: The global financial system is built around the dollar. Oil and many other key commodities are priced in USD. International trade contracts are often written in USD. Changing this entire infrastructure is incredibly difficult and costly – everyone uses it because everyone else uses it.
5. Geopolitical Influence: US military and diplomatic power plays a role, offering a sense of security for the system underpinned by its currency.

Challenges and Pressures Facing the US Dollar (Your Concerns Addressed)

The dominance isn't unchallenged, and the factors you mentioned are key concerns:

1. Massive US National Debt: You're right, the US government owes trillions of dollars.

   • Impact: A large debt requires significant interest payments, diverting funds from other priorities. To finance it, the US Treasury must constantly issue new bonds. If confidence wanes, the US might have to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers, increasing borrowing costs for the government, businesses, and consumers (e.g., higher mortgage rates). In extreme scenarios, persistently high debt could fuel inflation if the central bank is pressured to "monetize" it (essentially print money to buy the debt).
   • Counterpoint: Many argue that as the issuer of the global reserve currency, the US can sustain higher debt levels than other countries because there's always global demand for its bonds (as safe assets). The key is maintaining confidence.

2. Foreign Holdings of US Debt: Significant portions of US Treasury bonds are held by foreign governments (like China, Japan) and international investors.

   • Impact: This gives foreign nations some leverage. If a major holder decided to sell off large amounts of US bonds quickly, it could disrupt markets and potentially force US interest rates higher. It also means the US is reliant on foreign capital inflows to finance its spending and trade deficits.
   • Concern: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., with China or Russia) raise fears that these holdings could be used as a weapon. Countries might also simply choose to diversify their reserves away from the USD to reduce their exposure to US policy or sanctions.
   • Counterpoint: Selling off massive amounts of US debt would also hurt the seller, as it would devalue their remaining holdings and could destabilize the global economy upon which they also depend. Most large holders have strong economic incentives not to destabilize the system abruptly. Diversification is usually a slow, gradual process.

3. De-Dollarization Efforts: This is the explicit desire by countries to reduce reliance on the USD.

   • Motivations:
     • Reducing Vulnerability to US Sanctions: Countries facing US sanctions (like Russia, Iran) or fearing future sanctions want alternatives to bypass the US financial system.
     • Geopolitical Realignment: Nations seeking to counter US influence (e.g., China, Russia, potentially blocs like BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and newer members) want to conduct trade and finance in other currencies (like the Yuan) or explore new mechanisms (like a potential BRICS currency, though this faces huge hurdles).
     • Economic Sovereignty: Some countries simply want greater control over their own monetary policy and less exposure to fluctuations in US economic conditions or Federal Reserve decisions.
   • Methods: Increasing bilateral trade settled in local currencies, building alternative payment messaging systems (alternatives to SWIFT), increasing gold reserves, promoting the use of other major currencies (Euro, Yuan), exploring Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
   • Reality Check: While de-dollarization talk is increasing, actual progress has been slow. No other currency currently matches the USD in terms of market depth, convertibility, and perceived safety on a global scale. The Yuan faces challenges like capital controls and lack of full transparency. The Euro faces political fragmentation within the Eurozone.

Potential Future Scenarios for the US Dollar (A Variety of Ways)

Given these dynamics, here are several potential trajectories for the USD:

1. Scenario 1: Continued Dominance (Status Quo-ish):

   • Description: Despite challenges, the fundamental strengths of the US economy, deep financial markets, and lack of a credible single challenger allow the USD to retain its primary reserve currency status. De-dollarization efforts continue at the margins but don't fundamentally shift the global balance.
   • Likelihood: Still considered highly plausible, especially in the short-to-medium term, due to inertia and the weaknesses of alternatives.
   • Implications: The US continues to benefit from low borrowing costs and global influence, but remains vulnerable to concerns about debt and geopolitical tensions.

2. Scenario 2: Gradual Erosion / Multipolar Currency World:

   • Description: The USD remains the most important currency, but its share of global reserves, trade settlement, and financing gradually declines. Regional currency blocs strengthen (e.g., Euro in Europe, potentially Yuan in parts of Asia/Africa). The world moves towards a system where several currencies share significant roles, rather than one dominant player.
   • Likelihood: Many economists see this as the most probable long-term trend. It's an evolution, not a revolution.
   • Implications: The US would slowly lose some of the "exorbitant privilege" of being the sole reserve currency issuer. Borrowing costs might gradually rise relative to other major economies. US influence might diminish slightly. This could arguably lead to a more balanced global financial system.

3. Scenario 3: Significant Decline / Loss of Primary Reserve Status:

   • Description: A combination of factors – perhaps severe mismanagement of US debt, a major geopolitical shock that shatters confidence (e.g., a major conflict, a US default - however unlikely), runaway inflation, or the rapid rise of a highly credible alternative (perhaps a digital currency or a unified bloc currency) – leads to a rapid flight from the dollar.
   • Likelihood: Considered unlikely in the foreseeable future, but not impossible. This would likely require a major crisis or a fundamental shift in global power dynamics.
   • Implications: This would be seismic for the US. Borrowing costs would likely soar, potentially triggering a fiscal crisis. The value of the dollar could fall sharply, leading to high inflation for imported goods. The US government's ability to fund itself and project power globally would be severely curtailed. This would likely cause significant global economic instability.

4. Scenario 4: Transformation via Digital Currencies:

   • Description: The advent of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) – digital versions of national currencies – could reshape the landscape. A US CBDC ("digital dollar") might reinforce USD dominance if well-designed and internationally adopted. However, CBDCs from other countries (like China's digital Yuan) or even decentralized cryptocurrencies/stablecoins could potentially facilitate easier cross-border payments outside the traditional USD-based system, accelerating de-dollarization trends if they gain traction.
   • Likelihood: The impact of digital currencies is still highly uncertain and depends heavily on design, regulation, and adoption rates.
   • Implications: Could either strengthen or weaken the USD's role, depending on how the technology evolves and how the US responds compared to other nations.

Conclusion

The future of the US dollar is not predetermined. While concerns about US national debt, foreign holdings, and active de-dollarization efforts are valid and growing, the USD retains formidable advantages rooted in deep markets, institutional trust (relative to alternatives), and sheer inertia.

A sudden collapse seems unlikely barring a major unforeseen crisis. A more probable path is a gradual evolution towards a more multipolar currency system where the dollar remains dominant but shares the global stage more significantly with currencies like the Euro and potentially the Yuan, alongside possible disruptions from digital currencies.

The ultimate trajectory will depend on:

• US Economic Management: Can the US manage its debt sustainably and maintain economic dynamism?
• Federal Reserve Policy: Will the Fed maintain credibility in controlling inflation and ensuring financial stability?
• Geopolitical Stability: Will major conflicts or shifts in alliances accelerate changes?
• Viability of Alternatives: Will the Eurozone remain cohesive? Will China open its capital account and increase transparency for the Yuan? Can initiatives like a BRICS currency overcome immense practical hurdles?
• Technological Innovation: How will digital currencies reshape cross-border finance?

The conversation around the dollar's future reflects broader shifts in the global economic and political landscape. While its reign is being challenged, dethroning it remains a monumental task with no clear successor ready to take its place entirely in the near term.

From the Heart of Myanmar

 Deepest Gratitude After the 7.7M Earthquake near Mandalay City, Myanmar.

To our valued neighbours in the ASEAN community, to the dedicated international rescue teams, and to the concerned citizens across the globe,

In the wake of the devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake that recently struck near Mandalay, shaking our communities and bringing unimaginable loss and hardship, we, the people of Myanmar, wish to express our profound and heartfelt gratitude.

To our neighbours within ASEAN – including the swift and vital assistance from Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia – and to the dedicated international rescue teams arriving from across the globe – such as those from Japan, the United States, Canada, Australia, the European Union, and so many others who answered our desperate call for help – thank you. Your presence and immediate support have been a powerful beacon of hope amidst the destruction.

Seeing your skilled teams arrive, ready to brave the dangers and work tirelessly alongside our own people, has been deeply moving. Your efforts searching tirelessly through collapsed buildings, providing critical medical care to the injured, delivering life-saving supplies like food, water, and shelter, and offering technical expertise – these actions demonstrate solidarity in its truest form. You arrived when we needed help most desperately, reminding us that compassion knows no borders and that we are not alone in facing this tragedy.

Every life you help save, every person you comfort, every bit of aid delivered makes an immeasurable difference as we grapple with the scale of this disaster. We recognize the immense effort, resources, and personal risks involved in your missions, and we are humbled by your generosity and dedication.

The road to recovery will undoubtedly be long and arduous, but knowing that the hands of friendship and support are extended from across the region and the world gives us strength and courage for the days ahead.

Please accept this message as a sincere expression of our deepest thanks. Your solidarity and kindness during this dark time will forever be remembered by the people of Myanmar.

With enduring hope and immeasurable gratitude,

The People of Myanmar

Golden residency visa: More benefits than a Green Card at $5M

The "Golden Card" visa is a proposed immigration program by President Trump, intended to replace the current EB-5 program. This program would grant foreign investors who invest a significant amount of money (potentially $5 million) in the U.S. a pathway to residency, prioritizing investment over job creation and simplifying the process.  Here is an analysis of the key aspects of the proposed "Golden Card" visa:  

**Definition**  

The "Golden Card" is a proposed visa program that would grant foreign investors a pathway to U.S. residency by making substantial financial investments in the country.  

**Purpose**  

The program aims to replace the existing EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, which requires foreign investors to participate in a U.S. business and create or maintain jobs.  

**Investment Amount**  

The proposed investment amount is $5 million, significantly higher than the current EB-5 minimum of $1.05 million (or $800,000 in targeted areas).  

**Job Creation**  

The "Golden Card" proposal eliminates the EB-5’s job creation requirement, focusing solely on financial investment.  

**Potential Impact**  

While the program could attract wealthy foreign investors and boost U.S. investment, it raises concerns about fairness and potential abuse.  

**Current Status**  

The "Golden Card" proposal is currently under discussion, and it remains unclear whether it will become law. Congressional approval would be required to implement such a program.  

**Similar Programs**  

Other countries, including those in the European Union and the Caribbean, have comparable "Golden Visa" programs that grant residency or citizenship to foreign investors.  

**Criticism**  

Critics argue that the "Golden Card" program could be exploited, allowing wealthy individuals to bypass traditional immigration pathways.  

**Role of USCIS**  

While USCIS (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services) enforces immigration laws, congressional action is needed to establish new visa programs like the "Golden Card."