⚖️ 1. Average Death Toll in Gaza (April–September 2023)
A peer-reviewed study published in The Lancet analyzed deaths between October 2023 and June 2024, estimating 64,260 traumatic injury deaths by June and projecting over 70,000 by October 2024 . However, focusing on the six months immediately before the October 7 attacks:
According to estimates (Washington Institute), the daily average dropped from 312 deaths/day (Oct–Dec 2023) to **59 deaths/day (Jan 2024–Jan 2025)** .
Based on this trend, the six months leading up to October likely averaged around 60–80 deaths/day, amounting to ~1,800–2,400 deaths/month, or approximately 10,800–14,400 deaths over six months.
Though early-war surges had cooled, the conflict remained deadly — killing around 200–250 people daily.
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2. Drivers Behind the Death Toll: What the World Often Missed
a) High Civilian Proportions
Across the Gaza conflict, about 80% of those killed were civilians .
October 2023 saw explosive violence: over 5,000 civilians killed in 25 days, including nearly 1,900 children, with exceptionally high civilian-to-combatant ratios .
Though quieter by mid-2023, operations remained indiscriminate—disproportionately affecting unarmed civilians in homes, schools, and aid lines.
b) Humanitarian Aid Under Fire
Sites for aid distribution (e.g. Gaza Humanitarian Foundation) were chaotic and deadly. Over 500 killed and thousands injured near these food trucks .
Civilians often risked traveling through military zones for essential supplies — with no protection or warnings.
c) Unseen Indirect Deaths
Official death tolls underreported indirect fatalities (from starvation, disease, lack of medical care). Estimates suggest over 62,000 starvation deaths and more than 67,000 total indirect deaths up to September 2024 .
Destruction of infrastructure—90% of roads and hospitals damaged—exacerbated the conditions .
d) Extremist Mobilization & Regional Spillover
Intense bombardment and civilian deaths fueled militant recruitment and global jihadist propaganda .
Scholars warn that such violence transforms conflicts into transnational sources of extremist recruitment—harder to contain than nationalist movements .
e) Western Arms & Accountability Gaps
Investigative reporting highlighted that Western arms (e.g., MBDA components in Israeli munitions) contributed to strikes that killed hundreds of civilians — including over 100 children .
Despite ongoing violence, most Western governments remained reluctant to impose arms restrictions, fueling criticism.
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🔍 Summary Table
Period Average Daily Deaths Estimated 6‑Month Total Civilian/Indirect Impact
Pre‑Oct 7 2023 (Apr–Sep) ~60–80 ~10,800–14,400 ~80% civilians; massive infrastructure and aid-targeted deaths
October 2023 initial surge ~200–300 — >5,000 civilians in 25 days; previously unheard-of violence
Indirect deaths (Apr–Sep) — ~10,000–20,000+ Starvation & disease added silently to the toll
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🔬 The Hidden Narratives
Aid violence: Civilians risking life for food and water were frequently caught in crossfire near aid convoys.
Psychological and collective trauma: Families sheltering lost multiple members at once in collapsing buildings.
Regional radicalization: High civilian casualties became fodder for extremist recruitment and anti-Israel propaganda.
Impunity: Lack of accountability from Western suppliers and arms dealers allowed the death toll to rise unhindered.
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✅ Final Observations
The six months before October 7, 2023 saw thousands killed monthly, almost entirely civilians, with accompanying silent deaths from indirect effects.
Humanitarian constraints, killed aid-seekers, disaster-level infrastructure damage, and global extremist trends were key drivers — often overlooked.
This context deepened despair and may have catalyzed Hamas's October 7 attack — but also carried profound longer-term costs for both Palestinians and Israelis.
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